>> it's morning joe. but now stick around because chuck todd is next with "the daily rundown." president obama ramps up the sales pitch on his fiscal cliff picks. will public pressure push republicans into a deal. one leading house republican who happens to be a former pollster takes a very vocal position on what he thinks his party needs to do and to do now. u.n. ambassador susan rice's attempt to smooth things over doesn't go over as well as she or the white house would have liked. guess who stepped out to vouch for her. none other than a retiring amigo, senator joe lieberman. and new numbers on a hypothetical matchup for 2013 that would be sure to get some votes. what would happen if cory booker took on chris christie. that's not the only big 2013 news this morning on the

campaign front. good morning from washington. it's wednesday, november 28, 2012. this is "the daily rundown." i'm chuck todd. right to my first read of the morning. so is washington just running out the clock until about ten days before christmas when everyone smells the jet fuel and gets ready to cut a deal to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff? some days it feels that way. the president is stepping up his pr effort today delivering remarks this morning surrounded by, quote, middle class americans who will see their taxes go up if no deal is done. he'll sit down with more than a dozen ceos hater today including several who were prominent supporters of mitt romney. the white house even has a new hash tag called #pound#my2k. i asked jay carney whether this is just a game of running out the clock until the real negotiations begin in late december. is everything just killing time

until the deadline comes? >> no. >> it seems everybody -- >> it doesn't feel like killing time. >> killing time until the final week and the jet fumes of the airport and then everybody will sit down and hammer this out. >> well, look, here's a fact, the president has on the table a proposal that reduces the deficit by $4 trillion. that is substance. so he has not waited for people to start smelling the jet fumes at national airport. he has actively put forward a plan. >> the white house and republicans are ramping up their pr, something significant is happening behind the scenes. both sides appear to be preparing their own basis to eat their vegetables, if you will. in other words, get ready to make some sacrifices on sacred cows that are required for a grand bargain. for republicans that means swallowing changes to the bush-era tax rates and yesterday the first major house republican broke with the party line in a

private meeting with the house republican whip team which is responsible for counting the conference's votes. oklahoma congressman tom cole said it's time to immediately extend the bush-era tax cuts which, of course, is what obama is calling for, for households earning less than $250,000 a year. then he later told "the new york times," quote, the first thing i'd do is make sure we don't raise taxes on 98% of the american people. we'll get some credit for that, and it's the right thing to do. i don't believe in holding the american people hostage to this debate. sounds like the president, doesn't it? he told politico it's not that he believes in raising tax rates on the top 2% but he thinks republicans should have that fight separately. where there is common ground with the president, he adds, we should seize that common ground. cole is hardly a liberal and has served as chairman of the national republican congressional committee. while he's from oklahoma, he's always been a pragmatic guy. and, by the way, he's a former

pollster. he knows how to read poll numbers. while the tax fight has played out very well publicly, what hasn't been as public is the equally tough task the white house has in selling some entitlement changes to the democratic base. yesterday the senate's number two democrat dick durbin went to the liberal center for american progress and argued that in order to be, quote, part of the conversations progressives will have to accept some hard truths. >> we need to be open to some topics, some issues that are painful and hard for us to talk abo about. we cannot stand by the sidelines in denial untouched, unamended, medicare is going to run out of money in 12 years. that is scary. >> but it's what durbin didn't say that was striking. in his prepared remarks durbin was going to say the following. quote, progressives should be willing to talk about ways to ensure the long-term viability of social security, medicare and medicaid, but those conversations should not be part of a plan to avert the fiscal

cliff. durbin never said those remarks. he left that out. he later said he stood by those comments, and he did argue that medicare shouldn't be part of any up front down payment on the debt but part of the next year's long longer term negotiation. now while the short term talk to republicans may be tough, the longer term message to liberals is clear. entitlements in some form or fashion will need to be on the table. that means medicare. and a new "washington post"/abc poll shows just how politically tough making any changes to medicare will be. across party lines respondents said they are opposed to increasing the medicare eligibility age to 67. overall, a familiar number, 67% oppose any change in the eligibility age. just 30% would support a rise in it. one more thing that's become very clear. democrats will extract a deal -- they would like to he can tract a deal object the debt ceiling during negotiations on the fiscal cliff. and apparently in the

conversations that the president had with the house republican leadership, house republicans said if you want the debt ceiling raised in this deal you have to offer something else as part of the deal. u.n. ambassador susan rice is going back to capitol hill today to meet with other senators to try again. today she'll meet with senator susan collins of maine and bob corker of tennessee, both have been surprising public critics. her day one defense of her response in the benghazi attack and fence mending efforts to put it bluntly didn't go so well. >> we are significantly troubled by many of the answers that we got and some that we didn't get. bottom line, i'm more disturbed now than i was before. >> i want to say that i'm more troubled today. >> i'm told the meeting itself didn't go as badly as it sounded there. that said graham compared rice

to john bolton who democrats blocked after bush nominated him to be u.n. ambassador. remember, he ended up being a recess appointment. asked by defense news whether he'll put a hold on rice's nomination if she is appointed graham said, quote, oh, absolutely. i would place a hold on anybody who wanted to be promoted to any job who had a role in the benghazi situation. now rice clearly did not have the day the white house envisioned. the question is whether her outreach went so badly that it somehow scares the president and the white house and they decide it's not worth the heavy lift to nominate her. ultimately everyone believes rice is confirmable. the question is whether the white house wants the headache it will be to get her confirmed. john mccain made it clear on fox yesterday that if the president appoints senator john kerry, the road to confirmation will look quite a bit different. >> john kerry came within a whisker of being president of the united states. i think that works in his favor. i don't have anything in his ba background like this tragedy in benghazi that would make me r l

really want to carefully examine the whole situation. >> now one problem for mccain and graham as they prepare to wage this fight with the white house, they lost their third amigo, gave them bipartisan credibility. joe lieberman acted yesterday as a character witness for susan rice, telling reporters on the hill that he supports her. >> i would not feel that her appearances and anything she said on those sunday morning talk shows september 16 would disqua disqualify her for appointment to any other office. >> rice defended herself in a statement following her meetings writing, quote, while we certainly wish we had had perfect information just days after the terrorist attack as is often the case the intelligence assessment has evolved. we didn't intend to mislead the american people at any stage in the process. the most legitimate question her republican critics are raising

is this, why didn't she try to get more information even on the classified stuff so that she knew how to couch the unclassified talking points when she brought them to the public? yesterday in a sign of how the white house may be -- how set the white house may be on the rice confirmation, spokesman jay carney launched an aggressive defense of her from the podium. the focus on, some might say, obsession on comments made on sunday shows seems, to me, and to many to be misplaced. i know sunday shows have stat us in washington but they have almost nothing to do, in fact zero to do with what happened in bengha benghazi. >> and finally the president gets a second term but a number of his top cabinet officials are not coming back. here is a quick look other than the secretary of state about what we know about the shuffle going on behind the scenes. we know treasury secretary tim geithner will stay on at least through the new year both for

the fiscal cliff talks which he is the lead negotiator on and for the president's inauguration but he didn't init tetend to str a full term. two other people we know vetted for this job roger altman and black rock ceo larry fink. leon panetta is another cabinet member who says he won't stay for the next four years but don't expect him to leave anytime soon. he's in charge of the withdrawal interest afghanistan and defense cuts. not quite as ready to leave as some people have been reporting. john kerry and michelle flournoy are the two names being floated. keep an eye on the commerce department, rebecca blank took over. could end up being the permanent replacement for her. no word on any imminent departure janet napolitano, eric

holder, tom vilsack, education arn arne duncan, shaun donovan and kathleen sebelias. transportation secretary ray lahood. ken salazar and steven chu. while the president makes his case to the public, he may have to sell his position it to top democrats who are drawing their own lines in the sand as it to what should or shouldn't be part of the conversation. stephanie cutter served as the president's deputy campaign manager. she joins me now. you look rested. >> thank you. >> welcome back from the time off i assume you took. let's start with when it comes to the fiscal cliff and the mandate the president believes he has on taxes, we understand that, is the democratic base going to accept changes in medicare?

>> well, you know, chuck, we need to work through a process. the president has a balanced deficit reduction plan already on the table that includes a medicare savings and medicaid savings, about $340 billion. over the course of the next ten years including savings we've already put in place, that's more health care savings than even simpson-bowles achieves. so if we want balanced deficit reduction, we have to look at everythi everything. everything that needs to be on the table. the mandate that the president has, and i think he said this after the election, his mandate is to protect the middle class and help people enter and stay in the middle class. how do we do that? make sure medicaid is there in the future, that it is as strong and efficient to carry -- >> but he's going to be open to changes to all of this stuff? >> he has a plan on the table, so it's a little bit of a discussion that we've already had. >> let's talk about the politics a minute. the future of obama for america. how much a part of the dnc does it become?

how do you do in 2014 what obama for america was incapable of doing in 2010? >> well, let's talk about 2014. those decisions are being made now whether obama for america gets housed at the dnc -- >> could it be a separate organization? >> or it could be a separate organization. i think that coming out of the 2008 election organizing for america, which was really -- >> but you housed it in the dnc. >> right. those decisions are being made now. but i will say that 2012 is a little bit different than 2008. the american people nope the preside president. they know they've elected him once. they elected him again because they want to get a series of things done. the president ran on an agenda so there's a lot we need to get accomplished. ofa, obama for america, those millions who helped get the president elected, they want to get that agenda done. so i think you'll see a pretty mobilized group of people across this country who have a real stake in the outcome of what happens in washington. >> you tried to tap into that.

when you were at the white house, you trade to tap into this core group of people that is different, the obama coalition, it is sort of i think we're going to look back on it and say this isn't a democratic party coalition, it's an obama coalition. it was a reagan coalition that he could mobilize. you seem to struggle to do it on policy. why was that? >> let's look at who that coalition is. it's latinos all across the country. it's young people. it's which will. it's african-american, it's middle class families. take a look at what the president wants to get done the next fourees, keep tax rates low, immigration reform, make progress on clean energy and these are things that coalition cares about. so i think that you'll see a much more mobilized group of people across this country. look at what we were able to do over the last year, a year ago, in renewing the payroll tax cut. we took that case to the american people.

do you want to play politics. >> everyone is for lower taxes. everyone wants their tax bill lower. no one is excited -- >> the one group of people who weren't ready to do that were republicans here in congress. >> i understand that. >> the reason they're getting to the table is we mobilized the american people but look at what people voted for. look at the exit polls. look at the exit polls show people want balanced deficit reduction reform. show that they want to increase tax rates on those at the top 2% and above so that we can achieve balanced deficit reduction and invest in our economy. if they chose education over tax cuts for those at the top, they chose clean energy. so these are -- that's what this election was about. it makes a difference to actually run on something. >> let's talk about the inauguration, what's going to be obviously second term inaugurations are just smaller. they just are. that's just a fact. what's the attempt to make this second inaugural seem different? what will make it stand out? >> well, you know, the ro ses has just started. we're just three weeks from the

election -- >> who is running? >> the same people that were involved last time will be involved this time. lots of discussions are taking place. it will be a smaller scale, but we're just about two months out. we have a lot of work it to do 0 but the president is very much looking forward to giving that speech. >> well, the construction is already apparent all over washington. stephanie cutter, nice to see you. >> nice to see you, chuck. >> we will be checking in again, thank you. the real rawrangling is happening in the house. up next we'll talk to two members of both parties about what it will really take to make the deal. first a look ahead at the president's schedule. we told you a lot about it today. a lot of pr stuff. he has ceos, lots of fiscal cliff stuff. joy's christmas shopping and was looking at best buy

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i learned the value of a dollar working in my dad's store and running my own small business. i know we can pay down the debt while protecting social security and medicare. >> we need firm footing by reforming our tax code. we have to be strong, working to create jobs by reducing red tape. and we need to keep our eye on the target. those are campaign ads. will they make the tough choices to avoid the fiscal cliff. shawn dutchy and arizona democratic congresswoman elect ann kirk patrick who is actually

coming back to congress after losing two years ago. welcome to both of you. congressman duffy, let me start with you, the news about tom cole and his -- the case he's making, the republican that says, you know what, take the president's dael on the middle class tax rates and live to fight another day. where are you? >> i think this is a minority position within the party. a lot of us have said we'll talk about revenue which is what the president talked about on the campaign trail. but we're still waiting for the president to lean forward, to lean into the negotiation table and talk about what he's willing to do with regard to spending cuts and fixing and saving our entitlement system. so we're willing to have that conversation but right now just to raise taxes and, for me, i'm from rural wisconsin, those tax increases go on my small businesses, my small manufacturers, the people who employ people in central and northern wisconsin, hard working families. that's a tough pill to swallow. >> i understand.

>> goes further to fix the debt crisis. >> the argument is simply, hey, take that issue off the table politically you're letting the president hammer the republicans, if you will, hammer you on looking like you're protecting the top 2% them you can have the real debate you want to have. >> what was the president talking about during the campaign? a balanced approach and that balanced approach to fix this trillion dollar deficit was one way to reduce spending, fix entitlements and raise revenue and everyone has to sit together to fix that problem. this is not just about tax increases which does little to fix the debt problem. this is about a global solution that will save the next generation from a lower standard of living. >> all right. congresswoman kirkpatrick, i know that with republicans the tough pill they have to swallow is on taxes. for democrats, the tough pill may be changes in medicare. the ad, the campaign ad that we

ran, had to do with you making a pledge about protecting, keeping sort of -- essentially making the case you're going to keep medicare and social security out of this fiscal argument. is that where you stand? could you support changes in medicare like raising the eligibility age, tougher aspects to means testing in order to get a larger deal? >> i support keeping medicare as it is. our seniors have earned that right. it's a system that works well for them. it is a balancing. we have some tough economic issues to look at and to figure out, and i'm looking for good ideas, chuck. but let me say this, one thing that seems to be lost in this balancing right now is jobs. we still need jobs in america. we still need jobs in my district. and so part of the conversation has to be let's not do anything that increases unemployment or moves us in the opposite direction. now my colleague to be mr. duffy

and members in congress will have tough choices in the next 30 days. it will take a lot of political courage, but i know there are many good men and women in congress, thoughtful, who want to solve this problem. but it's not easy. the american people elected us to make those tough decisions. >> i understand. could you, if medicare, if the price of a balanced approach includes some big changes to medicare, at least on the eligibility age, could you support something like that reluctantly? nobody says you have to like it. but can you support something you don't like in a case like this in. >> not when it comes to protecting our seniors. there are other issues to look at. let me just throw out one idea. we were talking about giving and keeping the tax cuts for middle class people who make $250,000 or less. my idea is let's make it $500,000 or less. so let's come up with some new ideas. let's have that kind of dialogue. >> let me get you, congressman

duffy, just to respond to that. on this tax rate conversation you bring up the small businesses. if you raise the threshold to $500,000, is that something you are more comfortable with? >> let me tell you why. what you have us do here is negotiating with ourselves. >> i know. >> i'm willing to talk about revenue. but we have to say where is the president, where are ann's colleague coming in to say we'll put ideas on the table, too? when we talk about medicare, we're all clear, everyone wants to preserve and protect for our seniors, those about to retire. the changes we talk about are for the next generation of retirees and we have to acknowledge medicare is going broke. it can't stay the same way that it is today or won't exist. so let's solve that problem now so we don't have to deal with it when it's a bigger problem five, ten, 20 years from now. and on the tax front, again, the small businesses are the ones who pay the higher rates. the wealthy americans have high-priced lawyers and accountants and they use all the loopholes to not pay taxes so you raise those rates, you don't get the really wealthy, you are

getting the small business guys, the small manufacturers who are the ones creating jobs in our district. i think this has to be the point, though. the president has to get off the campaign trail. he has to come, sit down and go, i am going to lead. i ran on leading. i ran on being bold. i'm going to tell you what the solution it to get both sides to come together and get a resolution that works for the american people. >> this question i ask to people who win, lose, then win again. what lesson did you take in your loss that you believe you are taking back and winning a seat back in congress? >> well, you know, i always worked hard to get to know all my colleagues so we could come up with good ideas and solutions. i'll continue to do that. one of the nice things, i do know a lot of members of congress right now. i just met mr. duffy. we both come from large rural districts. i'm sure we have a lot of similar issues. i want to leave this thought, chuck. it's been said that innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower. i'm looking for innovative eides

that will carry us into the 21st century and for the next generation. but partisan gridlock is not helping. we need to set that behind us. let's look for good ideas that are not partisan ideas for the good of america and our country. thank you. >> you both sound like you come from swing districts and you do, from my understandings of the map. congressman duffy, congresswoman elect kirkpatrick, thank you for coming on together. >> thanks, chuck. well, was it something he said? senator harry reid speaks and stocks drop. really? the market rundown is next. boy, that stock market will listen to anybody these days. remember a man who changed professional sports without ever putting on a uniform. entertainment more than any other person in american history. how many presidents lost a general election before going on to win the white house? tweet me the answer. the first correct answer gets a follow wednesday from us. ♪

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yes, it's still 2012, but i have campaign themed radar for you this morning. north carolina democratic senator kay hagan said she plans to run for re-election in 2014. she is seen as one of the more vulnerable democrats up in 2014. what kind of bench do the republicans of north carolina have. and the garden state race for governor, a new quinnipiac poll shows new jersey voters would pick republican governor chris christie over democratic mayor cory booker. booker has not said he is going to run but many democrats hope he will. some people think he's waiting to run for the u.s. senate seat

in 2014. half of those polled had a positive but said they don't know about him to form an opinion. a little break iing news out of virginia. republican lieutenant governor bill bolling is going to make it official that he will drop out of the race this morning clearing a path fo the likely nominee for governor. governor mcdonnell said he was still backing bolling. are you supporting bill bolling? >> i told him four years ago i would support him. >> you're sticking with us? >> he's a good man. >> are you worried about a divisive primary? >> primaries and conventions are about choices. once we finish those, we get back together and try to win. >> likely democratic nominee

appears to be terry mcauliffe. no other major democrats have announced they will get in. mark warner said no. the joke, running joke, among operatives about mcauliffe's chances were always, well, they have no chance of becoming governor unless they get to face fill in the blank of the other guy. mcauliffe versus kucinelli. we'll see if that turns out to be the race if it's that nasty. concern over the fiscal cliff crisis is moving overseas as europe worries about the negotiations. how is wall street reacting? becky quick is here. if washington runs in circles, you guys are just going to sell off on wall street. is that really what we're learning here? >> reporter: yeah, you know, in fact yesterday we did the same thing, chuck. you heard the comments from harry reid and mitch mcconnell and the markets ended up closing at the low levels of the day. >> don't they know what posturing means? do they need help understanding the definition of it? >> reporter: i will say this, chuck, i have serious concerns

about why they are negotiating all of these things in the public and still campaigning on these issues. if you want to get a serious deal done, shut up, close the doors, go talk to each other because the more you talk, the are more you push the extremes of your party to positions that they're not going to be happy with whatever deal you could reach in the middle. i think that's a huge concern. in fact, this morning we spoke with warren buffett about this very issue. he thinks there's a real chance we will get some sort of a deal but maybe not necessarily by december 31st. he thinks the middle of the party could work out a deal. they will go kicking and screaming and if the leadership feels they will lose their leadership position, that could make them drag their heels as well and not get a deal as quickly. if we go over december 31st, we'll see what happens with the markets at that point. >> dow 8,000. becky quick, sorry. thank you. >> reporter: thank you. >> up next, are republicans and conservatives on the verge of a breakup?

the republican party needs conservatives but do conservatives need the republican party? today we're taking a deep dive into where the two overlap and where they don't. go back to this past spring, just a month or so after mitt romney secured the nomination. author and veteran craig shirley wrote something that caught a lot of our eyes saying the party itself had about become nothing more than what suits the cause at the time. he made the case that such a

strategy can't co-exist with conservatism's unchanging principles. many conservatives have, in fact, decided that their beliefs have become permanently inconsistent with republicanism. this may be more apparent in 2012 than ever before. no offense to romney, but he is the perfect nominee for the republican party in 2012 because he, like the gop, has adopt add variety of positions over the years in order to acquire power. the etch-a-sketch comment was stunningly accurate. here is what i said at the time on "morning joe." when i read your column yesterday, i said, boy, if mitt romney loses, that's going to be the debate inside the republican party. >> it's going to be the fate. >> is it because mitt romney wasn't -- this is going to be the debate. is it because mitt romney wasn't a true blood conservative and what is the republican party going forward? >> well, fast forward six months and here we are. mitt romney gets beaten.

the tea party candidates todd akin and richard mourdock let seats slip away, george allen and josh mandel go down in defeat. so where does the republican party go from here? a lot of gop heavyweights like bob mcdonnell who was here with me yesterday says the problem isn't what republicans are saying, it's how they're saying it. >> we're still a center/right country. we have to do a much better job on the tone of our campaigns and the way we communicate with new voters, with minority voters. at the end of the day our ideas on small business, entrepreneurship, on limited government, on lower taxes, these are still the messages that work. >> well, that doesn't wash with many conservatives who argue when the party moves away from the right and towards the middle, it gets caught somewhere in between. i keep thinking about armadillos. he wrote the gop has in its history adopted every side of every issue like the democrats, actually. the party is only about the acquisition of power. this is the end itself. not the means to significaanyth.

well, will the 2012 election mark the end of this marriage of convenience between conservatives and the republican party? the president of shirley and bane. best-selling author of several books particularly about ronald reagan including "ran day view with destiny." mr. shirley, well, a simple question. conservatives, republicans, do you believe a divorce is coming? >> i think it's coming to a head. i don't know if there's a divorce coming, chuck. i nope the debate over fwroefr and the pledge right now, he's caught between two forces. between on one side the washington establishment and the democratic party which is pushing obviously for higher taxeses and more government spending and, two versions of the republican party, one of the insiders and one the outsiders. the outsiders represent the old republican party which was to take power away from washington and send it back to the states and the individuals. the new republican party represents the more recent strain of bushism and big

government republicanism. and so the question is which side in that republican party -- this fight really is not about the democratic party, what involves grover is not about grover, it's not about the pledge, it's about what the republican party will stand for going forward. >> there's something about -- the question is about pragmatism here and elections have consequences. this wasn't a small victory for the president. it was a fairly significant victory and on certain issues like taxes and stuff like that it was pretty resounding in the exit poll. i guess what ronald reagan supported taxes five times, raised debt ceiling, granted amnesty to illegal immigrants, extended social security and -- >> we can go through every one of those and i can explain the how and why. his tax cuts were far bigger than his tax increases. and the so-called amnesty in the time of the cold war. a lot of people were fleeing communism in nicaragua and in cuba and even then extremely

strict regulations for gaining american citizenship. >> i guess the question i have, and you talk about conservatism, the basis of it, part of it is to be inflexible. >> and that's fine. but i think you wrote at one time, one of the marks of conservatism, these principles, and you have to be inflexible about it. when does pragmatism come in. i'm at 70%? >> i suppose at a time of national crisis and a time of war, doing world war ii we have to set aside certain things. we are not in that situation. these are relatively small problems. the problem with the republican party, as i said before, it's not making the case of its principles which is about less government and more freedom. you see nothing coming from the republican -- >> romney's entire message in the last three months of the campaign. now we could argue that he didn't do a good job the first nine months but, boy, i think he was articulating in a way i've

not heard of. it didn't resonate but he tried. >> if he tried, he didn't try hard enough, let's put it that way. you see whether it's senator simpson or anybody else, nobody is saying, now wait a minute. if we need all this money in washington, shouldn't we audit the government programs that are asking for more money and see where the waste and fraud and abuse are and see if we really need to ask the american taxpayer -- and this is really -- this is about the assigning of power and democratic party and the washington establishment have one view of power and there's two views of power inside the republican party and that's where we're going to see what happens. >> i know you're hesitant to do this. who is the future of the party? who is the future of conservatism? >> i don't know if there's any individual and frankly i don't think it's a good thing right now to have one person -- >> not one person. >> i think many people should articulate conservatism. >> always like to have your views on this and will have you

back, the fight for the soul, who runs the republican party will continue. and now a moment to pay tribute to marvin miller, one of the most influential figures in the history of major league baseball. he died yesterday. miller never played professional baseball, but as executive director he changed it in no way anyone else has. he led the players to three strikes and two lockouts. he introduced collective bargaining. the average salary increased from $19,000 to nearly a quarter million. but his biggest achievement came from the issue of freedom, if you will. he won free agency for the players in 1975. end i ending a rule that bound players to the teams holding their contract. >> a lifetime of control is over. and when the dust clears and settles, i believe baseball as an industry and as a sport will

be more successful than ever because of it. >> under miller's leadership, baseball's players association became a mod 0 l for the nfl, the nba, and the nhl. the director of the national hockey league players association famously served under and succeeded miller after he retired from baseball. in a statement released yesterday said this. marvin possessed a combination of integrity, intelligence, eloquence, courage and grace that is simply unmatched in my experience. without question marvin had more positive influence than any other person in the last half of the 20th century. by the way, fehr is involved in the ongoing nhl lockout that began on september 15th when the collective bargaining agreement expired. despite appearing on the ballot five times and being one vote shy in 2010, miller has not been recognized by baseball's hall of fame. his next shot is december 2013. unfortunately, marvin miller, if he's elected, won't be alive to sech the honor. he was 95.

the clock is ticking as both sides are playing a game of time management, if you will, on the fiscal cliff. many are warning about risking, putting it all into overtime including former senator allen simpson of the simpson-bowles commission. he is a simpson-bowles and not bowles-simpson. >> they're going to react right down to the last point whether it's going to be blood and hair and eyeballs all over the floor, and they're going to come up with something, but, let me tell you, if it's just kicking the can down the road, the can is now a 55-gallon drum filled with explosives. you can't play that game anymore. and if it's kick the can down the road, the markets are going to chop us up. >> i think that there are some people that are simply going to want to hire alan simpson and say just speak and let that go as a show. let's bring in our panel, contributor and former deputy press secretary for president george w. bush, msnbc contributor and former dnc spokeswoman and roll call's

david directeder. i think the big news of the day is tom cole. how much influence does tom cole have inside the house republicans among the conservative pragmatists? >> not much. i wouldn't make too much of this other than it's another republican talking about the e idea that we don't have to raise -- we don't have to hold firm on this idea. it's notable because you have somebody going public with the idea that, hey, let's just do what the president wants. but if you're -- correct. if you're looking at it asings oh, he can give people cover, he's going to influence people to change their minds, no. >> but the polling piece -- i heard you say that about him earlier, that's not insignificant. at this point, remember, the polls say overwhelmingly americans will blame republicans if this deal goes down. the president has the wind at his back on this one. so it's -- even if you don't like the politics of it from a pragmatic approach as a republican, i mean, they're

negotiating with a hand they do not have. >> and that's what's striking to me. this is a case where i am like, i am surprised, too, if you're the republicans, the president wants this, give him that. and then all of a sudden you can have a larger debate and maybe it's going to be a harder debate but -- >> a hard he debate for republicans to win. i want to negotiate with tom cole, with somebody who is willing to give today. you can get the 98% deal anytime. that's the deal. >> you take it off -- >> you get rid of the president's best political sledgehammer, if you will. >> by the way -- >> no, no, not really. >> it's not like it only helps a certain -- everybody gets something up to $250,000. >> i know the view is only the republicans have something to lose. republicans saying they don't want to raise tax rates on anybody. the president said he does not want to raise taxes on people below $250,000. if we go into january and we hit

that trip wire, everybody goes and then you're negotiating from a position where you are giving up things. and, you know, it's like if you're a parachute salesman. the parachutes are much more valuable on the way down. i think we're -- i think it's inevitable. i've been saying it for months. >> you think we are going over? the area where you can do the best negotiating. >> for both sides. >> both sides. >> are you a cliff diver? >> absolutely not. so we go over the cliff. is it two months, three months, six months before we get a deal? people say this like -- here's the problem. there's nothing in the history of the way this congress, even with a few more democrats in there, has operated to suggest we're going to get a deal anytime soon if we go over the cliff. i think that is a disaster for too many americans. >> the difference is the debt ceiling. >> i think if you want to get a deal you have to give republicans some sort of win. now, maybe you just pound them

into the sand, but if you actually want them to come around so this is done before the new year, they have to have some win because their voters are going to be very upset because philosophically on tax increases it's not about who's affected -- >> hold on. going to take a quick break. the white house doesn't want to go over the cliff because they don't want to poison the well of working with congress the next two years. it could exasperate it faster. that's what he doesn't want anyway. stick around. trivia time. how many presidents lost a general election before going on to win the white house? the answer, believe it or not, is seven. john adams, thomas jefferson, andrew jackson, john quincied a asms, william henry harrison and richard nixon were all elected after one losing run. grover cleveland lost then won again. i am going to check the john adams part. trying to remember when he ran against george washington. white house soup of the day, chicken noodle.

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let's bring back our panel. tony, with you here, i thought i'd use this as an excuse. you were there, bush's second term. politically, what lesson can barack obama and the democratic party learn from a mistake, if you will, that bush made in the first six months? >> i think the failure was that we never picked a fight with our party. we never vetoed a spending bill and did not put us in a position we could be an independent actor with both parties for the second term. >> i've heard this complaint from democrats about the president. >> on bush? >> no, no, on the president, that he's needs to always be the independent actor. >> i think in this instance, i want to say i think the

president needs to use the leverage he has in that massive database that he didn't use in the first term that we were wondering if he would use the first time. use it, get what you want. >> sitting on a lot of political capital, now i'm going to spend it. don't assume people re-elected you to do everything you said you would. they just liked you better than the other guy. >> shameless plugs. >> rollcall.com. it's free. our 2014 senate ratings coming out tomorrow. >> no more pass words? >> no more nothing. if p ice in the print edition, it's there. >> tony. >> world aids day is thursday. i support orphans december 1st, saturday night. >> karen. >> record number of women in congress. shameless plug. i hope it brings a little bit of sanity to the process. >> all of the committee chairs in the house republican conference -- >> all white men. >> picture of the party's potential problems. that's it for this edition of "the daily rundown."

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